I was sitting in a cafe yesterday, and I couldn’t help but overhear a conversation between two women in their mid 30’s. They were discussing the economy, and were being a bit over-dramatic about the impact it’s having on their families. My favorite quote: “Bill and I decided that we should have the maid come every other week, and we’re reducing the nanny to 30 hours a week.” So sad… I almost shed a tear. We often forget how stupid we sound when we say things like this—I have a page from the back of an... [Read More]

A profoundly unpopular Republican President, widely viewed as a massive failure by the populace is succeeded by a charismatic Democrat just as the country peers down the precipice of a deep and prolonged recession, following a historic crash in the stock markets. Unemployment is soaring, and deflationary forces rear their ugly head. The new President promises to put Americans back to work with sweeping public works projects, and leverages new technology to reach out to the citizenry weekly with his messa... [Read More]

CNBC had the following commentary: Silver looks attractive to Graham Bibby, managing director at Richmond Asset Management, as he believes it is slightly undervalued. He explains his investment rationale for this precious metal, as well as gold. I agree with all of this, except “slightly” undervalued. Silver is at historical lows relative to gold, and the situation has changed in significant ways in the last few years such that I strongly believe that the short-term volatility in the precious metal i... [Read More]

The major commodities indicies are being rebalanced again, which made me decide to sell a bunch of gold shares at around 860 knowing that most indicies would be reducing their gold exposure because of its strong performance in '08. Barry Ritholtz is questioning the timing of this rebalancing as well as the last one in 2006.   "...I have no clue what the motivation is for these moves, nor do I knows what what they were in 2006. But they are looking increasingly curious and ill timed. Once is a coi... [Read More]

The infinite complexity combined with infinite diversity (in infinite combinations)that we see in nature is by definition incomprehensible and unpredictable by man. This is, at least in my view, a core truth. Further, I believe that when material complexity is created by man, it cannot be predicted, but also adds an inherent instability and lack of balance. When this occurs, balance and stability cannot be restored without reducing complexity... and depending on the motivation of the system's design, t... [Read More]